The media line right now is that Obama is pulling away from Romney in the all-important state of Ohio, which, as all political junkies know, is not just a swing state—it is the swing state, as no Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. (The Wall Street Journal‘s lead story today is “Electoral Drama Shifts to Ohio.”) I spent Monday and Tuesday in Ohio, and most everyone I spoke with—admittedly a small and skewed sample mostly of the very good people of Ashland—says these poll numbers and media analyses just don’t feel right. But what do we know, anyway?
Everyone seems ready to hit the Panic Button like we’re under “launch on warning” conditions of the late Cold War—everyone’s worried about pushing it in a moment of panic, but it never really happens because. . . well, in a political campaign, the metaphor means what, exactly? Bring in James Baker! Never mind that he’s 145 years old by now, and isn’t even on Twitter.
A few observations. First, generally speaking nail-biting elections have become the new norm for Republicans for a while now. I recall vividly early September back in 2000 when people were fretting that George W. Bush was faltering against Al Gore. Something must be done! Panic buttons must be pushed! No, an old sage said to me; it’s up to Bush. He has to do it. No one can help him much from the outside. The “experts” say debates don’t really change the course of elections, but I remain skeptical of this. The Nixon-Kennedy debates surely made a difference; I think it made some difference in 1980, perhaps in 1976 (when Ford liberated Poland), and probably in 2000, when Gore’s erratic debate performances underscored doubts about the guy—well-founded doubts, as Gore’s subsequent madness has made clear. George W. Bush’s faltering performance in the first debate against John Kerry in 2004 sliced into his steady lead at the time. So let’s stay tuned; there’s a still a lot of time between now and November for things to change.
Second, everyone should have a look at this post on BattlegoundWatch.com from “keithbacker” that weighs the situation in Ohio. It notes that Romney suffers from the lack of a clear or forceful message, and that the auto bailout is popular in Ohio. He leaves out one other factor: the natural gas boom, which is helping to revive Ohio’s economy, may be rescuing Obama here. “keithbacker” notes that Governor Kasich is giving a mixed message, as his celebration of improving conditions in the Buckeye State help Obama there. It would be the most bitter of ironies if hydrocarbon energy, which Obama hates and would like to kill, turns out to have been his lifeline. The mention of Kasich raises one other item—the large loss as the polls last fall of the referendum on public employee union reforms. I listened to the radio spots last fall and thought the unions were going to win. Kasich and the Ohio Republicans clearly overreached and didn’t bring the same calculating prudence that Scott Walker showed in Wisconsin. This loss should have been a warning sign to the GOP that Ohio is tricky terrain.Third, “keithbacker” notes that the Romney campaign has a strong ground game in Ohio, and this might make the difference. Back in 2004, while Democrats were publicly boasting about their ground game, the Bush campaign quietly went about building and executing a much better one, and it made a huge difference. If there’s one thing I’d expect a Bain Capital-style presidential campaign to do well, it would be the election day get-out-the-vote ground game.
In the ongoing effort to protect jobs and affordable energy, the U.S. House of Representatives passed H.R.3409, the Stop the War on Coal Act. The legislative package passed the full House with bipartisan support by a vote of 233 to 175. This important jobs and energy package, sponsored by Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH), includes key measures advanced by the Energy and Commerce Committee: the Energy Tax Prevention Act, the TRAIN Act, and the Coal Residuals Reuse and Management Act. The legislation also includes important measures advanced by the Natural Resources Committee and the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.
“Today, the House took a stand for jobs, families, and affordable energy. On Tuesday this week, we learned of Alpha Natural Resources will be closing 8 mines and laying off 1200 workers. I met with the Alpha CEO shortly after the announcement, and he lamented the administration’s regulatory assault on coal. Sadly, the list of layoffs goes on because of the administration’s ‘all of the above, but nothing from below,’ energy policy,” said Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Fred Upton (R-MI). “Coal is the cornerstone of our economy – estimates suggest that every mining job creates an additional 3.5 jobs. We are electricity independent – and we want to stay that way.”....
The sad truth is that the Stop the War on Coal Act has no chance of getting through the Senate and the president would simply veto it anyway. (At least with the current occupants of the White House and the Senate leadership.) So the layoffs currently taking place at Alpha Natural Resources and their subsequent losses on the market will still take place. This pattern is being repeated across places like Ohio and Pennsylvania, but if there is help in sight, it’s not coming soon.
From The Western Center for Journalism: here's Congressman Allen West on Pres. Obama's foreign policy, Israel, and more. And this was yesterday, before the killings in Libya.
After a first term that has been historically abysmal, President Obama stands a good chance of being reelected. How can that be?Here is the blunt explanation: We have lost a third of the country and, as if that weren’t bad enough, Republicans act as if it were two-thirds.The lost third cannot be recovered overnight. For now, it is gone. You cannot cede the campus and the culture to the progressive, post-American Left for two generations and expect a different outcome. So even if Obama is the second coming of Jimmy Carter — and he has actually been much more effective, and therefore much worse — it is unreasonable to expect a Reagan-style landslide, and would be even if we had Reagan. The people coming of age in our country today have been reared very differently from those who were just beginning to take the wheel in the early 1980s. They have marinated in an unapologetically progressive system that prizes group discipline and narrative over free will and critical thought.. . .The third of the country we’ve lost may seem like a decided minority. Progressives do not need more than that, though, to run the show, not today. They proved that at their own convention this week, with the laughable platform-amendment episode.. . .Obama’s base, that lost third of the country, may not be as enthralled as they were in 2008. But they are committed, utterly convinced about who the villains are, and prepared to be as chameleon as it takes to reel in, from the culture they dominate, the additional 15 percent or so needed to push their guy across the finish line. That’s how what should be a landslide for his opponent becomes a squeaker.
