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Wednesday, May 4, 2016

John Kasich's delegates



photo credit: minutemennews.com

What happens now to Kasich's delegates? 

Now that Gov. John Kasich has suspended his campaign for the GOP nomination, my question is: what happens to his delegates? Does it make a difference if he “suspends” his campaign or officially withdraws? Here’s something I found by Rober Eno at ConservativeReview (March 28):

Last week we debunked the myth that John Kasich’s Ohio delegates would be forced to vote for Trump if the Ohio governor withdrew from the nomination fight. To recap, they remain bound to Kasich for the first ballot and were hand selected by his campaign. Now that 66 of Kasich’s delegates are accounted for, what happens to the remaining 79 of his delegates were he to suspend?

Twenty-one additional delegates from Iowa, Virginia, Illinois, and North Carolina are bound to Kasich, even if he withdraws or suspends. That means a total of 87 delegates are bound by rule to vote for Kasich on the first ballot—that is, 60 percent of his delegates.

Thirty-two delegates would be unbound from Kasich on the first ballot were he to publicly suspend his campaign. The delegates are from New Hampshire, Maine, Michigan, and the District of Columbia. Of those, 13 of the actual delegates were selected by the Kasich campaign. The rest were selected by the state party or at a convention.

Twenty-five delegates would become unbound if Kasich specifically unbinds them in writing to a state party, mostly by informing the party that he has withdrawn. They include delegates from Massachusetts, Vermont, Kansas, and Kentucky. These delegates were not handpicked by the candidate.

The single delegate from Nevada can unbind him or herself upon withdrawal by Kasich if she or he so wishes.

If no candidate reaches 1,237 delegates prior to the convention, and John Kasich has dropped out prior to the convention, only 58 of his delegates would be free-agents on the first ballot in Cleveland.

The entire analysis is here.


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Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Trump wins Indiana




All the advance polls, including those on RealClearPolitics, showed lower numbers for Trump. All the website election HQs are calling Indiana for Trump. The Democrat race as of 8pm is too close to call.

Politico election results are regularly update here. Exit Question: Will Cruz bow out now?

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Sunday, May 1, 2016

Breeding dependency


Today's chuckle is making the rounds on FB:


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Republican Convention in Cleveland: Bikers and Truckers plan to roll in


photo credit: infostormer

From Reuters (and quoting Cleveland Tea Party’s Ralph King):
  
From bikers to truckers, pro-Trump groups plan forceful presence in Cleveland


When Chris Cox rolls into Cleveland in mid-July with other motorcycle-riding supporters of Donald Trump, he plans to celebrate the billionaire's coronation as the Republican presidential nominee. He also counts on joining protests if a battle over the nomination ensues.

"I'm anticipating we'll be doing a victory dance," said Cox, 47, a chainsaw artist and founder of Bikers for Trump, thousands of whom he estimates will hit the Ohio city for the July 18-21 Republican National Convention.

"But if the Republican Party tries to pull off any backroom deals and ignores the will of the people, our role will change."

Bikers For Trump is part of a diverse array of groups coordinating to hold thousands-strong protests and marches if the real-estate mogul is denied outright victory at the Republican Party’s nominating convention in Cleveland.

The risks of confrontation and violence surrounding Trump events were highlighted again on Thursday, when around 20 people were arrested following clashes between anti-Trump protesters and police outside a rally for the candidate in California. It was the worst outbreak of violence since Trump was forced to cancel a rally in Chicago in mid-March.

Anti-Trump protests are expected in Cleveland. In late March, the left-leaning National Lawyers Guild held a conference in the city to coordinate legal support to protesters in the event of mass arrests during demonstrations.

Leaders and members of the pro-Trump groups told Reuters their main goal is to mount a show of support for their candidate, who after a series of primary victories this week looks increasingly likely to clinch the nomination outright ahead of Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich.

But if he falls short of the required 1,237 delegates, raising the risk he could lose out in a contested convention, they said they plan to do all they can to exert pressure on party leaders to prevent someone else getting the nomination.

Several Trump supporters suggested that tensions could escalate if the party was seen as trying to deny Trump the nomination despite his commanding lead in delegates won in primary contests.

"The plan either way is send a message to the Republican establishment to respect our votes," said Ralph King, a member of the Cleveland Tea Party. "If the party tries to parachute in a white knight to steal the nomination, it's not going to end well."
. . .
The Cleveland Division of Police also has a security plan in place as it does for all major events of this kind, a spokeswoman said in an email, without providing further details.
. . .
Pro-Trump groups planning a presence in Cleveland include some Tea Party-affiliated organizations, a new group called Stop The Steal led by Trump ally Roger Stone, Citizens for Trump, and the Truckers for Trump group.

King, a veteran of Tea Party rallies, is coordinating with other groups and local police to obtain permits for marches and protests during the convention, and to hold a major rally in downtown Cleveland that will then march on the convention site.

"STOP THE STEAL"

Read more here.


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Saturday, April 30, 2016

Ann Coulter's take on Cruz and Kasich



Ramirez cartoon credit: rightwingnews.com


Ann Coulter's acerbic take on Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. John Kasich was up on the Breitbart website the other day:

Apparently, John Kasich and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)  are at their most appealing when no one is paying attention to them, which, conveniently, is most of the time.
. . .
Listening to Cruz always makes me feel like I have Asperger’s. He speaks so slowly, my mind wanders between words. As Trump said, there’s a 10-second intermission between sentences. I want to order Cruz’s speeches as Amazon Audibles, just so I can speed them up and see what he’s saying.
The guy did go to Harvard Law School, so I keep waiting for the flashes of brilliance, but they never come. Cruz is completely incapable of extemporaneous wit.

Now that Cruz has been mathematically eliminated, he’s adding Carly Fiorina to the ticket. She’s not his “running mate,” but his “limping mate.” It’s an all-around lemon-eating contest.
. . .
Kasich is constantly proclaiming that illegals are “made in the image of God,” and denounces the idea of enforcing federal immigration laws, saying: “I don’t think it’s right; I don’t think it’s humane.”
When asked about his decision to expand Medicaid under Obamacare — projected to cost federal taxpayers $50 billion in the first decade — he said: “Now, when you die and get to the, get to the, uh, to the meeting with St. Peter … he’s going to ask you what you did for the poor. Better have a good answer.”
He lectured a crowd of fiscal conservatives on his Obamacare expansion, saying, “Now, I don’t know whether you ever read Matthew 25, but I commend it to you, the end of it, about do you feed the homeless and do you clothe the poor.” He also attributed the law to Chief Justice John Roberts and said, “It’s my money, OK?”
Voters thought they were getting a less attractive version of Mitt Romney with Kasich, but it turns out they’re getting a more televangelist version of Ted Cruz.
They’re also getting a less warm and personable version of Hillary Clinton. Last week, Kasich lashed out at a reporter who asked a perfectly appropriate question, going from boring campaign boilerplate to irritated browbeating in about one second flat. As much as I enjoy watching reporters being berated, this was deranged.
Kasich: Listen, at the end of the day I think the Republican Party wants to pick somebody who actually can win in the fall.”
Reporter: But if you’ve only won Ohio?
Kasich: “Can I finish?”
Reporter: “If you answer the ques–”
Kasich: “I’m answering the question the way I want to answer it. You want to answer it?” (Snatches voice recorder from reporter’s hand.) “Here, let me ask you. What do you think?
When giving a speech to Ohio EPA workers a few years ago, Kasich suddenly went off topic and began shouting about a police officer who had given him a ticket three years earlier. “Have you ever been stopped by a police officer that’s an idiot?” he began. He proceeded to tell the riveting story of his traffic violation to the EPA administrators, yelling about “this idiot! … He’s an IDIOT!”
Based on the dashcam video immediately released by the police, Kasich had been in the wrong, and the officer — you know, “the IDIOT” — was perfectly polite about it.
. . .
Ironically, it’s Kasich who has been complaining the loudest about the alleged billions of dollars of “free media” Trump has been getting. It turns out not getting “free media” was a godsend for Kasich and Cruz.
Read the rest here.

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Wednesday, April 27, 2016

The Delegate Math


art credit: www.usnews.com

Ted Cruz just got thrashed in the five primaries yesterday, so today, he’s announced his VP running mate: Carly Fiorino. No surprise there. Cruz SuperPacs funders( Club for Growth, Keep The Promise and Robert Mercer) transferred funds to Carly’s campaign. See here and here. Meanwhile, the pro-Trump blogger Sundance runs the numbers following yesterday’s primary results:

The Delegate Math – Going into last night’s contest Trump was holding 848 delegates (Cruz 559).  There were 175 possible delegates available last night, however 54 are unbound from PA.
Based on preliminary results, it appears Donald Trump has swept every pledged delegate in Maryland [38] (won every congressional district), also Connecticut [28] (won every CD and took more than 50% statewide), Pennsylvania [17] (statewide delegates are awarded winner-take-all) and Delaware [16], along with 11 delegates in Rhode Island.
That’s a net pledged delegate gain of 110.  However, the math gets better because it appears Trump has also won 45 of Pennsylvania’s 54 “unbound” district level delegates (delegates declared for Trump, or declared intent to vote for CD winner).  So the approximate gain in delegates yesterday is around 155.
Add those 155 to the previous 848 and you get 1,003.
The Math Will Move In Direct Proportion To The Ideology – Most of the media totals will not include those unbound delegates from PA regardless of who they declared support toward.  Some media totals may include parts or portions of those unbound delegates – so you can expect to see some significant disparity depending on which media outlet is presenting their version of the data.
EXAMPLE:  CNN has a total for Trump of 988 (LINK) –  The New York Times has 950 (LINK)  – Politico is also using 950 (LINK) – and Green Papers has 956 (LINK).  It appears CNN is using “some” of the unbound PA delegates, and the latter three are not using any.
However, the fact that Donald Trump has resoundingly won every congressional district in Pennsylvania, and the fact Trump won the entire state with 57% of the vote total, gives Team Trump an easy leverage point to advance the argument they are entitled to the support of all 54 unbound Pennsylvania delegates.  Again, it appears 45 of them are already pledged to Trump or have agreed to vote for the CD/State winner.
[See here for the charts and map.]
Conservatively it is fair to say Donald Trump has won, at a minimum, 1,000 delegates as of this moment.
The goal is to reach 1,237.  But again, let’s be conservative and say –Moving Forward– Trump needs another 250 just for safe measure.  250 more delegates will easily put him over the top with wiggle room.
There are 502 delegates remaining in the next six weeks.  Indiana (next Tuesday) is holding 57 of those:
27 are district allocated to the winner in each of the 9 congressional districts.  Whoever wins the most votes in that district will receive all 3 convention delegates.
30 (10 base at-large delegates plus 17 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) statewide delegates are to be allocated to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes statewide. (link)
Currently Donald Trump is slightly ahead of the polls in Indiana.  Senator Ted Cruz has planted his flag, and with it his entire campaign, on winning Indiana.
Prior to last night’s results, Indiana was a must win for Senator Cruz and the #NeverTrump team.  After last night’s results, Indiana is now an absolute MUST WIN for Senator Cruz.
If Donald Trump wins Indiana, taking most, many, if not all of the 57 delegates, the Cruz/Kasich/#NeverTrump scheme is completely wiped out.
However, IF Trump doesn’t win Indiana, and because of the overwhelming victory last night, not much mathematically changes for Trump.
Cruz’s VP announcement today may change the subject for a few days, but it is unlikely to make a significant difference in the remaining primaries.

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