Amid the reports of disruptions to the supply chains, mandates for truckers, inflation, and other interference from the government, how do we know when the supply chains into our grocery stores have been disrupted to the point where people will start to panic? Sundance has been suggesting the tell-tale signs of substantive disruptions to the food supply chains, and how you will recognize it as something other than the usual running-low-on-products over the weekend. His predictions:
Initial food instability signs in
the supply chain. Things to look for:
(1) A shortage of processed potatoes (frozen specifically). 1.a And/or a shortage of the ancillary products that are derivatives of, or normally include, potatoes.
(2) A larger than usual footprint
of turkey/ham in the supermarket (last lines of protein).
(3) A noticeable increase in the
price of citrus products.
(4) A sparse distribution of
foodstuffs that rely on flavorings (sports drinks).
(5) The absence of non-seasonal
products.
(6) Little to no price difference
on the organic comparable (diff supply chain)
(7) Unusual country of origin for
fresh product type.
(8) Absence of large container
products
(9) Shortage of any ordinary but
specific grain derivative item (ex. wheat crackers)
(10) Big brand shortage.
(11) Shortage of wet pet
foods
(12) Shortage of complex blended
products with multiple ingredients (soups, etc.)
(13) A consistent shortage of milk
products and/or ancillaries.
These notes above are all precursors that show significant stress in the supply chain. Once these issues are consistently visible, we will likely continue toward food instability very quickly, sector by sector, category by category.
. . .
More from Sundance here. Another "tell": when restaurants begin to react, such as this report from Domino’s Pizza.
It may not be time to panic, but it is time to make sure your pantry is stocked up.
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