Overlooked math and stats in the coronavirus reportage
From CTP’s roving photographer and in-house statistician:
Since most people recover from
Coronavirus. shouldn't we be looking at currently infected (CI) as opposed to
all infections to date (AI)? At this stage most people in the US are still
infected, so CI won't be much larger than AI. But, over time, say, with a three
week lag to account for disease duration, wouldn't the CI increase rate grow
more slowly than the AI rate? After all, it is the CI people who transmit the
disease, not the AI people who have recovered or died (R+D). In other words, we
should look at the growth rate of CI, not AI.
In the US, total cases are 4,667
(AI) and 74 + 81 (R+D) have totally recovered or died leaving 4,512 still
infected (CI).
In China, total cases are 80,881
(AI) and 68,688 + 3226 (R+D) have totally recovered or died leaving 8,967 still
infected (CI).
I think this may explain why the
disease appears to be tapering off in China.
Numbers from here, but this site (Worldometers) updates frequently.
So maybe we are not all doomed.
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